Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary August 6, 2018

admin August 6th, 2018

The Markets

Capital gains tax reform comes with a big price tag: $100 billion over 10 years.

A capital gain is any increase in the value of an asset, such as an investment, a home, land, etc., between its purchase and its sale. The amount of a gain is determined by subtracting the purchase price from the sale price.

Last week, the White House proposed capital gains be adjusted or ‘indexed’ for inflation before they are taxed. Princeton Professor Alan Blinder explained the idea in The Wall Street Journal:

“Why index gains? Suppose you own a stock for many years, during which time overall prices have doubled because of inflation. Over the holding period, the value of your stock also has doubled. When you sell, the proceeds have precisely the same purchasing power as the original purchase. There’s no gain, no loss. But under current tax law, you owe taxes on the phantom ‘gain.’ Worse, if your stock went up by less than the cumulative inflation, you’ll still get taxed despite your loss. This is unfair and dysfunctional.”

While the suggestion is appealing to many investors, it’s not without controversy. For example, the White House suggested the Treasury Department change the tax code without Congressional approval by modifying enforcement regulations. However, the legislative branch – Congress – is constitutionally responsible for tax law.

In addition, adjusting capital gains for inflation without doing the same for interest expense and depreciation may allow some taxpayers to be able to generate significant losses on paper. Current tax law includes provisions that limit this kind of tax strategy, but indexing capital gains would reopen the door, reported the Tax Policy Center.

Another consideration is the impact of the change on the deficit and the national debt. The Congressional Budget Office estimates suggest 2017 tax reform will increase “…the total projected deficit over the 2018-2028 period by about $1.9 trillion.” Adjusting capital gains for inflation could increase the shortfall by about $100 billion over a decade, reported Naomi Jagoda for The Hill.

Data as of 8/3/18 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) 0.8% 6.2% 14.9% 10.6% 10.7% 8.6%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. -1.4 -4.1 2.0 3.7 3.0 1.2
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 3.0 NA 2.2 2.2 2.6 4.0
Gold (per ounce) -0.6 -6.2 -4.1 3.7 -1.4 3.0
Bloomberg Commodity Index 0.1 -3.7 1.9 -2.1 -7.5 -8.1
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index 3.2 3.2 6.2 8.0 9.4 8.3

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

The millennial way.

From social media to housing options to banking, every generation has had its own preferences. Today, millennials (individuals between the ages of 18 and 34) are having a profound influence on lifestyle and culture. Here are three trends to watch:

  1. Millennials are moving to smaller cities. “Mid- or second-tier cities, loosely defined as those under a million people that aren’t regional powerhouses like Austin or Seattle, are increasingly seen as not just places to find a lower cost of living, easier commute, and closer connections with family, but also a more approachable, neighborhood-oriented version of the urban lifestyle that sent many to the larger cities in the first place,” reported Patrick Sisson for com.
  2. Millennials like point-of-sale loans. Point-of-sale loans are catching on. The Economist reported, “Consumers who might previously have financed big-ticket purchases such as furniture, electronics, or home-improvement projects with a credit card are now opting to borrow at the checkout, often with an initial 0 percent interest rate. These short-term credit products were once the domain of big banks…[and] store-branded credit cards. Now tech startups are entering the market with innovative techniques for underwriting and approving potential borrowers, often in seconds.”
  3. Millennials tend to prefer healthier lifestyles. “For millennials, wellness is a daily, active pursuit. They’re exercising more, eating smarter, and smoking less than previous generations. They’re using apps to track training data and online information to find the healthiest foods. And, this is one space where they’re willing to spend money on compelling brands,” reported Goldman Sachs.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“The changes in our life must come from the impossibility to live otherwise than according to the demands of our conscience, not from our mental resolution to try a new form of life.”

–Leo Tolstoy, Russian writer

Best regards,

Kelly P. Campbell, CFP®, CMFC®, ChFC®, AIF®

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

Securities offered through Campbell Wealth Management is a Registered Investment Advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC.

* These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.  However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* You cannot invest directly in an index.

* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please write us at mirela@campbellwealth.com.

* To unsubscribe from the Weekly Market Commentary please reply to this email with “Unsubscribe” in the subject line, or write us at mirela@campbellwealth.com

Sources:

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/399953-trump-asked-treasury-to-look-into-capital-gains-tax-cut-sanders-says

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/capital%20gain

https://www.wsj.com/articles/index-capital-gains-but-not-without-congresss-consent-1533163465 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/08-06-18_WSJ-Index_Capital_Gains_but_Not_Without_Congress_Consent-Footnote_3.pdf)

https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/should-treasury-index-capital-gains

https://www.house.gov/the-house-explained/branches-of-government

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53787

https://www.statista.com/topics/2705/millennials-in-the-us/

https://thoughtcatalog.com/jae-schaefer/2017/05/14-reasons-why-millennials-are-amazing-and-will-change-the-world/

https://www.curbed.com/2018/5/1/17306978/career-millennial-home-buying-second-city

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/08/04/tech-startups-are-reviving-point-of-sale-lending (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/08-06-18_TheEconomist-Tech-Startups_are_Reviving_Point-of-Sale_Lending-Footnote_10.pdf)

https://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/millennials/

https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/leo_tolstoy_153949


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